DREEM BASELINE ASSESSMENT STUDY

Job description

INTRODUCTION WUSC (World University Service of Canada) is a leading Canadian international development organization committed to providing education, economic, and empowerment opportunities that improve the lives of disadvantaged youth around the world, with particular focus on young women and displaced people. In line with this mission, WUSC invites qualified consultancy firms or research institutions with demonstrated expertise in monitoring, evaluation, research, and learning in forced displacement, education, and economic inclusion to submit applications to conduct the baseline study for the second phase of DREEM. DREEM is a five-year, pan-African initiative (2026 - 2030) implemented by WUSC in partnership with Mastercard Foundation and its partners, including higher education institutions, Young Africa Works partners, and Refugee-Led Organizations (RLOs). The initiative works to improve equitable access to higher education and to dignified and fulfilling work for refugee and displaced persons (RDP) youth across Africa, with a focus on young women, persons with disabilities, and internally displaced persons (IDPs). This Terms of Reference (ToR) sets out the background, purpose, objectives, scope of work, expected deliverables, and management arrangements for the baseline study, and invites eligible Firms to submit technical and financial proposals for consideration. As a foundational component of DREEM’s Monitoring, Evaluation, Research and Learning (MERL) Plan and Performance Measurement Framework (PMF), the baseline study will establish the starting point against which all subsequent progress, adaptive management decisions, and DREEM’s contribution to change will be assessed at midline (2028) and endline (2030). WUSC welcomes applications from firms and consultants based in Africa, and particularly encourages those with a demonstrated track record of working alongside refugee-led and community-based organizations, and with lived experience of, or established relationships within, refugee and displaced communities. This reflects WUSC’s and the Mastercard Foundation’s shared commitment to locally led, African-centered approaches to evidence generation. DREEM PROGRAM OVERVIEW DREEM Phase 1: Achievements and Lessons The first phase of DREEM (2020 to 2025) strengthened the inclusion of refugee and displaced youth in education and employment across the Mastercard Foundation’s partner network. By its midline evaluation in 2022, DREEM had already contributed to 2,531 refugee and displaced scholars (14.5%) enrolling in higher education through the Mastercard Foundation Scholars Program, and to 1,391 youth in work (YiW) through 194 funded RDP and host-community-owned businesses. DREEM also piloted locally led outreach and technical assistance models with Refugee-Led Organizations, the University Now consortium, and capacity-strengthening support to RLOs in Malawi, South Sudan, and South Africa. Internal and external evaluations of DREEM Phase 1, including assessments by HERE and Expectation State, identified several priorities that inform the design of DREEM Phase 2: strengthening the transition from higher education to employment; deepening and formalizing partnerships with RLOs; institutionalizing sustainable outreach mechanisms; building dedicated internal expertise on internally displaced persons; and developing more systematic approaches to technical assistance delivery and its measurement. These lessons directly inform both the design of phase 2 of DREEM and the evidence priorities of this baseline study. Overview of DREEM Phase 2 DREEM expands on the achievements of the first phase by deepening engagement, strengthening local ecosystems, and equipping the Mastercard Foundation and its partners with the knowledge, tools, and partnerships needed to drive lasting change for RDP youth, particularly young women, across Africa. The initiative extends its reach to new geographies, places a greater emphasis on strengthening Refugee-Led Organizations (RLOs) as providers of technical assistance, and deepens its focus on internally displaced persons, asylum seekers, and returnees as well as youths from host communities. Over five years, DREEM will work to contribute indirectly, through technical assistance to the Foundation and its partners, to enabling 1,000,000 RDP youth, especially young women, to secure dignified and fulfilling work, and 35,000 RDP youth to access education. The initiative will directly enable over 5,000 RDP and host-community youth (70% young women, 10% persons with disabilities) to access dignified and fulfilling work, and will engage and strengthen the capacity of 62+ RLOs, of which 5% will focus on green or climate-smart programming. The DREEM Theory of Change is organized around two interconnected intermediate outcomes: Outcome 1100: Improved provision of inclusive education and economic opportunities programming for RDP and host-community youth especially young women by Mastercard Foundation and its partners, comprising two immediate outcomes: (1110) increased knowledge among Foundation staff and partners of the policies, practices, and systemic barriers affecting RDP youth; and (1120) enhanced capacity of Foundation staff and partners to develop, test, and scale inclusive programming. Outcome 1200: Strengthened ecosystems that support the inclusion of RDP youth especially young women across Africa, comprising two immediate outcomes: (1210) increased capacity of the Foundation and partners to develop, improve, and implement inclusive policies and practices; and (1220) enhanced ability of RLOs to design, implement, and sustain solutions that improve access to education and dignified and fulfilling work for RDP youth. DREEM has deep engagement in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Nigeria, Ghana, and WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) countries, with broader reach into Chad, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, Egypt, South Sudan, Malawi, and Côte d’Ivoire. Program governance is guided by a Youth Advisory Board (YAB) composed of 15 young refugee and displaced leaders (at least 60% women), and by (YTAC) Youth Technical Advisory Committee that deploys RDP youth experts to support Foundation teams and partners directly. The DREEM MERL Plan establishes an integrated evidence system comprising the Theory of Change, Logic Model, Performance Measurement Framework (PMF), Learning Agenda, and operational MERL tools. This baseline study is the first major evidence-generation milestone under that system, and its findings will populate the baseline column of the PMF (currently “TBD”) and inform the design of subsequent monitoring, learning, and evaluation processes over the life of the program. Baseline Survey Context and Approach The main objective of this evaluation is to secure verified, disaggregated benchmark values for the PMF indicators, enabling precise measurement of outcomes and impacts at midline (Year 3, 2028) and endline (Year 5, 2030). Beyond mere data collection, the study is designed to cultivate a strategic, contextual understanding that will guide adaptive management, target calibration, and the ongoing refinement of programmatic approaches across the four principal delivery areas of DREEM. Serving as the foundational evidence-generation initiative for Year 1 (2026), the baseline evaluation outlined in the DREEM MERL Plan offers an objective, external determination of the program's initial status. This independent assessment establishes the vital benchmark required to monitor future program achievements and evaluate DREEM's long-term contribution to change. Without rigorous baseline data, the program would be unable to substantiate progress relative to its Performance Measurement Framework (PMF) targets, verify the core assumptions of its Theory of Change, or facilitate the contribution analysis required for subsequent midline (2028) and endline (2030) evaluations. DREEM’s MERL system is guided by seven principles: utilization-focused, enabling and co-created, systems-oriented, adaptive, inquiry-driven, contribution (rather than attribution) focused, and equity and participation-centered approaches. The baseline study is expected to embody each of these principles in its design and delivery. In practice, this means the baseline exercise must go beyond generating a static set of numbers: it should generate a credible, well-documented evidence base that can be revisited through contribution analysis at midline and endline; it should be co-designed with RLOs, the Youth Advisory Board, and RDP youth wherever feasible, rather than extracted from them; and it should examine change not only at the level of individual RDP youth, but also at the level of Mastercard Foundation and partner organizations, RLOs, and the wider ecosystem . Access the detailed Terms of Reference through this link