Forecast Analyst

Job description

About Scentbird Scentbird inspires fragrance lovers to go beyond the ordinary and sample scents that evoke passion, confidence, and the unknown. Our mission is to revolutionize the way we perfume by bringing the ultimate fragrance playground right to your fingertips and offering a digital subscription service that lets members choose from over 500+ designer perfumes each month. About the Brands: Scentbird : The easiest way for fragrance lovers to discover, try, and buy their favorite scented products without a commitment Deck of Scarlet: Deck of Scarlet is on a mission to break the clean category, redefining what clean fragrances should smell like. Composed entirely of vegan, cruelty-free ingredients, our fragrances bridge the gap between the clean and luxury categories, using the highest eau de parfum concentrations housed in sculptural, eye-catching bottles. You shouldn’t have to choose between being luxe and refined, or clean and vegan—now, you don’t have to. Confessions Of A Rebel: We were born in 2018, holding fast to the idea that the fragrance industry was in dire need of a change. When we looked around, all we saw was a sea of sameness: outdated archetypes of femininity and masculinity paired with unrelatable images of luxury that we had no say in. In truth, we are complex in ways that cannot be contained in the traditional heteronormative stereotypes, existing beyond the binary with raw, unfiltered voices that deserve to be heard. Goodhabit: Enriched with a blend of essential oils, Goodhabit’s clean, vegan, cruelty-free fragrances act as bottled intentions you set free with each mist. Our scents are designed to help you align with the good habits you’re building, while working to enhance and boost your mood. Inhale, exhale, and let the good energy flow through you. Sanctuary: Created for those who care about the fate of our planets, Sanctuary offers fragrance for a better future. Our clean, community-driven fragrances are inspired by endangered species and their habitats, each aimed at raising money and awareness for the preservation of their namesake. Drift: Drift began as an alternative to all of the tacky air care products on the market. Our products are designed to blend in, with amazing scents that stand out. We take pride in our fragrances, keeping them free from the traditional chemicals used in the fragrance industry. We are always phthalate and paraben free. We never skimp on quality of our scents or the products that deliver them. Our design ethos is simple but effective. We love our community, those who won’t settle for ordinary, and we want to deliver a best in class experience. Scentbird is committed to bringing individuals from different backgrounds and perspectives into the Nest. We strive to uphold an inclusive environment where individuals of all different backgrounds, ages, colors, ethnicities, gender, or gender identities, genetics, physical or mental abilities, protected veteran status, race, religious or sexual orientation, thrive. We respect the laws enforced by the EEOC and are dedicated internally to going above and beyond in fostering diversity. Come as you are - we’re excited to meet you. PLEASE NOTE THIS ROLE IS FOR OVERSEAS APPLICATION, NON -U.S. ONLY. NO DOMESTIC (U.S.) APPLICATIONS WILL BE CONSIDERED. Forecast Analyst Scentbird operates two brands with fundamentally different demand models. Scentbird is a fragrance subscription business. Forecast inputs are driven by subscriber counts layered with behavioral assumptions including custom selection rate, featured fragrance adoption, add-on rate, and upgrade rate. Drift is a design-forward scent brand sold through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, where POS signals and channel mix drive the forecast. Getting both right matters: every forecast decision flows directly into what we buy, when we buy it, and how much working capital we tie up across a $42M+ combined inventory position. SCENTBIRD is seeking a Forecast Analyst to sit at the analytical engine of our demand planning function. This role works directly with David Kim (Sr. Manager, Forecasting and Demand Planning) to maintain, improve, and execute SKU-level forecasting across both brands. You will be the person who keeps the numbers clean, the models current, and the S&OP inputs ready on time, every month, without gaps. A significant portion of the role is the day-to-day execution behind the forecast: updating data, maintaining and adjusting forecasts, reconciling promotions, validating outputs, documenting S&OP inputs, and ensuring that every agreed-upon change is accurately reflected in Netstock. The Forecast Analyst works closely with the Demand Planning and cross-functional teams to keep the data behind our forecast accurate, reliable, and up to date. This role is focused less on developing forecasting algorithms from scratch and more on applying, evaluating, and continuously improving forecasting methods in a complex operating environment. It is an ideal opportunity for someone 1-3 years into their supply chain career who is highly organized, analytically curious, and understands that reliable forecasting starts with disciplined execution and attention to detail. What You’ll Be Responsible For: Forecast & Netstock Maintenance Maintain the statistical forecast across 10,000+ SKUs using exception-based review to prioritize material forecast deviations, unusual demand patterns, and high-impact demand exceptions rather than brute-force SKU-by-SKU maintenance. Review, update, and validate forecast outputs, incorporating approved demand adjustments and business inputs into Netstock to ensure forecasts reflect the latest sales history, demand signals, promotions, launches, and assumptions. Identify unusual forecast outputs, discrepancies, or gaps and investigate root causes before they flow downstream into purchasing decisions. Maintain accurate SKU and forecast data as the item base evolves, including new launches, transitions, and end-of-life SKUs all require ongoing model maintenance. As proficiency in the role develops, look for opportunities to standardize, simplify, and automate recurring planning activities to reduce cycle time and error risk. Forecast Accuracy & Diagnostic Analysis Own recurring forecast accuracy and bias reporting, tracking WMAPE, forecast bias, and error by SKU, brand, demand type, and channel on a monthly cadence. Identify the SKUs, assumptions, channels, promotions, and business overrides driving forecast error and provide structured root-cause commentary for leadership review. Track statistical baseline versus override performance to understand where model adjustments add or subtract forecast value. Understand how forecast quality affects purchasing, inventory, service levels, and working capital. Flag material demand changes or forecast anomalies to the planning team so they can be assessed for downstream impact. Promotional Forecasting Enter, update, and maintain promotional quantities and assumptions in Netstock, ensuring that all planned promotions and Scent of the Month features are fully accounted for in the forecast. Reconcile promotional plans against the forecast to identify missing or incorrect inputs before the monthly demand review. Validate promotional timing, SKU coverage, and expected demand impact. Identify unsupported, incomplete, or inconsistent demand inputs and surface them to the Sr. Manager of Forecasting & Demand Planning for resolution before the demand review closes. S&OP & Consensus Forecast Support the monthly S&OP demand review process, attending demand reviews and feeder meetings on a monthly cadence. Maintain the demand-review decision log, capturing assumptions, risks, opportunities, approved forecast changes, owners, and quantified demand impact so that every agreed-upon decision is documented and traceable. Translate approved S&OP decisions into quantifiable forecast adjustments within Netstock, ensuring every agreed-upon change is reflected in the system before the cycle closes. Prepare analysis highlighting key risks, opportunities, assumptions, and decisions for leadership review. Support the process of finalizing the consensus demand forecast following the monthly demand review. Help establish and maintain a consistent, data-driven forecasting methodology across the organization. Demand Signal Preparation Prepare clean, accurate, and validated demand inputs for the monthly S&OP demand review feeder meeting. Inputs must be ready on time, every cycle. Review underlying data and identify errors, gaps, or anomalies before the meeting. Ensure required forecast, sales, promotional, and demand inputs and reporting are available ahead of monthly reviews. Perform recurring data validation and reconciliation to maintain the integrity of the demand planning process. Ad Hoc Demand Analysis Support ad hoc demand analysis and business questions across Scentbird and Drift. Analyze demand implications related to: New product launches and launch timing Promotional sizing and timing Channel mix changes Sales trends and changes in customer behavior SKU-level demand changes Translate data into clear, actionable insights for the Demand Planning and broader business teams. Support special projects and analysis as needed. Qualifications 1-3 years of experience in forecasting, demand planning, supply chain, business analytics, or a related field. Strong follow-through and ownership of assigned responsibilities; ability to work autonomously and manage recurring monthly deadlines without oversight is critical. Comfortable working with large, complex datasets at high volume while maintaining a high level of accuracy. Strong Excel skills, including experience with advanced formulas, pivot tables, Power Query, and Power Pivot. Analytical curiosity: you want to understand why the forecast was wrong, not just that it was wrong. Experience automating analytical workflows using Python, Power Query, Power BI, or other technologies is preferred. Experience with ERP, forecasting, or planning systems is a plus; Netstock and NetSuite experience is a meaningful differentiator. Strong attention to detail and a high bar for data accuracy and output quality. Strong organizational skills and the ability to manage recurring monthly deadlines. Comfortable participating in cross-functional meetings and translating qualitative business inputs into quantitative forecast adjustments. Preferred Experience Subscription or DTC demand planning, specifically understanding behavioral-assumption-driven forecasting, not just historical trend extrapolation Multi-channel demand environments, including wholesale, retail, and DTC in the same planning role Statistical forecasting methods, including trend, seasonality, error measurement, bias identification Formal S&OP / IBP processes Supply Chain Management, specifically within supply planning, demand planning, procurement, or inventory management Promotional forecasting and SKU-level planning Netstock, NetSuite, or similar planning/ERP systems Power BI, Power Query, or other data analytics tools Who You Are A significant part of the job is maintaining, validating, reconciling, and updating forecasts and planning inputs across a complex two-brand operating environment. You are comfortable spending time in SKU-level data, checking that promotions are loaded correctly, validating forecast outputs, and making sure every agreed-upon change makes it into the planning system. You will also be expected to understand why the forecast was wrong, not just that it was wrong, and to look for ways to improve the process over time. The people who thrive in this role: Take pride in their work and own their responsibilities end to end. Are passionate about supply chain management and demand planning. Follow processes consistently and autonomously while meeting monthly deadlines. Do not mind repetitive work when accuracy matters, and are also motivated to question why recurring manual processes exist and improve them where appropriate. Are highly organized and do not let tasks fall through the cracks. Ask questions when something does not make sense. Enjoy working with data and digging into the details. Connect the dots between business conversations and quantitative forecast adjustments. What Success Looks Like Success in this role means the demand planning team can trust the forecast and the data behind it. At the close of each monthly planning cycle: All promotions are accurately reflected in Netstock. Statistical forecasts have been reviewed and validated across both brands. S&OP inputs have been captured and incorporated into the planning system on time. The demand-review decision log is complete, with assumptions, risks, approved changes, and owners documented and traceable. Demand signals are clean, reliable, and ready for review. Reporting is finalized and ready-to-use. The consensus forecast accurately reflects the latest business assumptions. Forecast discrepancies and data issues have been identified and resolved before they flow downstream. Ad hoc demand requests have been answered accurately and efficiently. By month 3, you are delivering S&OP inputs independently and on time. By month 6, forecast accuracy and bias are being tracked and reported monthly with structured root-cause commentary. By month 12, you independently own the core forecast execution and diagnostic layer, allowing senior planning leadership to spend more time on planning strategy and process development. Growth Path This role is the analytical foundation of our demand planning function. The intended progression is deliberate: execution mastery first, analytical ownership second, planning development third. As you develop fluency across both brands and both demand models, the development path is toward owning a brand's full demand planning cycle independently, from statistical baseline through consensus forecast. The team is growing and the scope of this role grows with it. What You’ll Love About Us: Competitive base compensation Bonus program Paid Time Off Wellness Days Off A fun, creative and energetic work environment.