Senior Analyst, Margin Forecasting

The Senior Analyst, Margin Forecasting owns the analytical engine behind merchandise margin projection and variance explanation. This role builds and maintains the driver-based margin forecast, quantifies the volume, rate, and mix components of margin performance, and provides the early warning that allows the business to act before results are locked in. Partnering closely with Merchandise Finance, Merchants, Sourcing, and Pricing, the Senior Analyst translates operational activity — cost changes, promotional plans, mix shifts, markdown decisions — into a forward view of realized merchandise margin. This role is designed for a rigorous analytical professional who enjoys building models that are both technically sound and commercially useful, and who is comfortable presenting findings to senior leadership. Who We Are At Bob’s, we have fun, we love what we do, and it shows in our expansive growth! Bob’s Discount Furniture is more than just a furniture store. We are one of the fastest growing omni-channel furniture retailers in the country. How We Will Support You At Bob’s we understand there are many companies you can choose to work for, so, along with exceptional opportunities for career growth we offer a fun team-oriented work environment and great benefits! Let us tell you more. Benefits & Perks- We’ve got you covered! We believe in supporting our employees and their families in the best ways possible is a top priority. We focus on three core wellness pillars: Emotional, Physical and Financial. Below are just some of the benefits that we offer: Feeling under the weather, we’ve got you covered! We offer Nationally provided Medical, Dental and Vision Insurance Paid Vacation, Personal Days, Sick Days, Holidays, work anniversary and your Birthday! After all, your birthday should be a holiday 401(k) Profit Sharing Plan with a Generous Company match! Pet Insurance to help keep your furry friends happy and healthy Life insurance – Employer-paid basic Life Insurance, with the option to add Voluntary Life Insurance as well! Financial Planning, Voluntary Legal Benefits and Wellness Plans We already offer value priced furniture, but on top of that we offer a Generous Employee Discount starting on your 1st day! Additional Employee Discounts through the “Hays Perks discount program” offering hundreds of online discounts from your favorite merchants. And so much more! Culture and Core Values- At Bob's we have a set of core values that shape the decisions we make every day and help define our company culture. These values comprise what we call "The Bob's Way." Honesty, Integrity, Transparency, Community, Safety, Diversity, Accountability and Fun. DIVERSITY IS A CORE VALUE AT BOB’S At Bob’s Discount Furniture, we want you to feel at home. Whether you’re shopping with us or a part of the Bob’s team, we want you to know that you are valued, appreciated, and free to be who you are. We are committed to creating a place as diverse as the communities we serve. Learn and Grow- We believe in developing our team members and helping them grow both personally and professionally! We promote Professional Development: In-person, virtually and offer an infinite library of on-demand classes in Workday Learning. We also offer Tuition Reimbursement as well as the BDF Education Foundation Scholarship Program open to employees and their dependents. Want to grow at Bob’s professionally? We look to promote from within our organization by having robust succession planning in place to ensure that our team members have the opportunity to advance their careers. Key Responsibilities Margin Forecasting Own the margin forecast model : build and maintain a driver-based merchandise margin forecast spanning initial markup, landed cost, markdown, mix, and shrink Drive the rolling forecast cadence : update and reissue the margin forecast on an established cadence, incorporating the latest cost, pricing, and demand inputs Quantify drivers : decompose margin performance and forecast changes into volume, rate, and mix, with clear attribution to specific business actions Model scenarios : quantify the margin impact of proposed pricing actions, cost changes, promotional plans, and assortment shifts Variance Analysis & Reporting Own margin variance explanation : produce clear, well-structured bridges explaining margin actuals versus plan, forecast, and prior year Surface risks and opportunities : proactively identify emerging margin risks and quantified opportunities; escalate with recommended actions Deliver executive reporting : prepare margin performance packages and executive dashboards that translate complex analysis into a clear narrative Maintain analytical integrity : ensure consistent definitions, reliable data lineage, and reproducible methodology across all margin reporting Cross-Functional Partnership Partner with Sourcing : incorporate landed cost movement, supplier negotiations, and total cost of ownership inputs into the margin view Partner with Pricing : quantify the realized margin impact of pricing and promotional decisions and feed results back into future recommendations Partner with Merchandise Finance : ensure the margin forecast reconciles cleanly to the financial plan and the corporate forecast Support planning cycles : provide margin analytics that inform the annual operating plan and the merchandise long-range plan Success Metrics In the first 12 months, the Margin Forecasting role will be evaluated on: Forecast Accuracy : Demonstrated improvement in merchandise margin forecast accuracy against actual results Explanatory Power : Margin variance consistently explained by identified drivers rather than unattributed residual Decision Support : Margin analysis demonstrably informing pricing, sourcing, and assortment decisions on a recurring basis Qualifications: Required Bachelor's degree in Finance, Accounting, Economics, Statistics, or a related field 4–6 years of experience in financial analysis, merchandise finance, retail analytics, or a comparable analytical role Strong understanding of retail margin mechanics, including initial markup, landed cost, markdown, and realized margin Advanced Excel and financial modeling skills; proficiency with SQL strongly preferred Demonstrated ability to build driver-based forecast models and explain variance with analytical precision Strong communication skills, with the ability to present findings clearly to finance and non-finance leadership High standards for accuracy and analytical integrity, with the ability to move quickly without sacrificing either Preferred Experience with enterprise planning tools such as Anaplan, Hyperion, or similar Furniture, home, or big-ticket retail experience Exposure to Power BI, Tableau, or comparable visualization tools Expected Base Pay Not Including Potential Commissions, Incentive, Bonus, etc. Opportunities: $80,000 - $100,000 It is policy of Bob’s Discount Furniture, Inc., to provide equal employment opportunity to all employees and applicants for employment. 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