Senior Economist - Effects of Transformative AI

Job description

**Position Overview** CARMA seeks an innovative economist to join our Geostrategic Dynamics team, exploring how advanced AI systems will reshape global economic paradigms, incentive structures, and power dynamics. You'll develop models to analyze critical risks including labor obsolescence, economic instability, concentration of power, shocks to the financial system, and degraded living standards as AI capabilities accelerate. This research aims to anticipate and identify vulnerabilities in economic systems before they manifest as widespread harms. You'll join a collaborative, intellectually rigorous team examining how AI capabilities will transform international economic systems and power dynamics. This role offers significant intellectual autonomy to propose and lead original research while drawing on interdisciplinary expertise from colleagues specializing in international relations, AI, and quantitative modeling. **About CARMA** The Center for AI Risk Management & Alignment (CARMA) works to help society navigate the complex and potentially catastrophic risks arising from increasingly powerful AI systems. Our mission is specifically to lower the risks to humanity and the biosphere from transformative AI. We focus on grounding AI risk management in rigorous analysis, developing policy frameworks that squarely address AGI, advancing technical safety approaches, and fostering global perspectives on durable safety. Through these complementary approaches, CARMA aims to provide critical support to society for managing the outsized risks from advanced AI before they materialize. CARMA is a fiscally-sponsored project of Social & Environmental Entrepreneurs, Inc., a 501(c)(3) nonprofit public benefit corporation. **Key Responsibilities** • Develop economic models to anticipate how advanced AI systems could create novel systemic risks and vulnerabilities • Build scenarios for potential economic disruptions from rapid AI advancement, including deflation, labor displacement, and market concentration • Model how AI-driven productivity changes could interact with existing economic structures to create new forms of inequality or disruption • Analyze potential concentration of power dynamics across markets, regions, and demographic groups as AI capabilities advance • Identify early warning indicators for economic instability, financial system shocks, and deteriorating standards of living • Translate complex economic risk analyses into actionable insights and present to policymakers, multilateral institutions, and other key stakeholders • Collaborate with interdisciplinary experts to integrate economic risk perspectives into broader AI safety considerations **Qualifications** **Required** • Advanced degree (PhD preferred) in Economics with expertise in labor economics and international economics • Demonstrated ability to rethink traditional economic models in response to paradigmatic disruptions • Strong publication or research record showing original thinking on economic systems and risks • Comfortable with uncertainty and using limited data, to predict novel economic phenomena • Excellent writing skills with proven ability to communicate complex economic concepts to non-specialist audiences • Self-motivated researcher with demonstrated interest in AI's systemic risks • Strong critical thinking skills for evaluating competing economic theories in unprecedented scenarios • Familiarity with US and EU policy landscapes and basic understanding of international relations • Systems thinking capability to identify complex interdependencies between economic factors **Preferred** • Training in econometrics or other applied quantitative methods • Coding proficiency (e.g., Python, R, or Rust) for economic risk modeling • Experience working in policy, multilateral institutions, or government contexts • Understanding of systemic risk analysis and complex adaptive systems • Knowledge of AI capabilities and their potential economic impacts • Background in macroprudential analysis or financial stability research • Experience with scenario planning or other foresight methodologies for identifying emerging risks • Familiarity with political economy approaches to power distribution and concentration • Experience analyzing the impacts of technological transitions or structural economic changes • Background in behavioral economics relevant to human responses to economic disruption *CARMA/SEE is proud to be an Equal Opportunity Employer. We will not discriminate on the basis of race, ethnicity, sex, age, religion, gender reassignment, partnership status, maternity, or sexual orientation. We are, by policy and action, an inclusive organization and actively promote equal opportunities for all humans with the right mix of talent, knowledge, skills, attitude, and potential, so hiring is only based on individual merit for the job. Our organization operates through a fiscal sponsor whose infrastructure only supports persons authorized to work in the U.S. as employees. Candidates outside the U.S. would be engaged as independent contractors with project-focused responsibilities. Note that we are unable to sponsor visas at this time.*